Trust in long-standing security guarantees in the Gulf is collapsing as the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran exposes vulnerabilities and forces a reassessment of regional geopolitics.
Bishop Aldo Berardi, Apostolic Vicar of Northern Arabia, said Gulf populations “are wondering why, despite the money spent on protection, bases, and weapons, we have been attacked so harshly,” warning this will lead to a “review of the geopolitics of this region” where “trust has collapsed,” according to testimony shared with AsiaNews.
He pointed to the timing of the attacks, saying the United States and Israel launched military action “while talks were underway; first they said they wanted to reach agreements, then they targeted bombing and killing the political and religious leader [Ali Khamenei].”
In this context, he added, “people understand that [Tehran] is now trying to defend itself.”
Berardi described the conflict as “based on revenge” and “different from the ‘traditional’ wars as we have known them until now,” marked by “a verbal escalation, followed by a material response.”
The fallout is already disrupting daily life across the Gulf. Air travel has been severely restricted, forcing longer overland routes, while economic uncertainty is growing as “the refineries are ‘almost all closed,’ the oil wells ‘cannot produce,’ and ‘the closure of the Strait of Hormuz’ is freezing traffic and trade,” creating “a distressing situation.”
Migrant workers, many from South and Southeast Asia, are among the most affected. “Some have lost their jobs or aren’t being paid, others are waiting for the end of hostilities,” Berardi said, noting “an increase in poverty and a demand for [economic] assistance.”
Fear is rising, especially among vulnerable groups, “especially the sick, women and children, and families,” he said, as uncertainty grows over whether banks, factories, and refineries will continue operating.
At the same time, the conflict is casting doubt on regional alignments and “has thrown everything into question,” Berardi said, referring to the Abraham Accords and broader cooperation in the Gulf, as governments face mounting pressure to reassess their security and diplomatic strategies.
