China and Vietnam are among the world’s most food-secure countries, capable of producing nearly all essential food groups needed to feed their populations without relying on international trade, according to a new global study published in Nature Food.
The study, led by researchers from the University of Göttingen and the University of Edinburgh, modeled a hypothetical collapse in global food trade and assessed how 186 countries would fare in terms of self-sufficiency.
Using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the researchers analyzed seven major food categories: legumes, nuts and seeds, vegetables, fruit, starchy foods, dairy products, meat, and fish.
The results reveal that only Guyana—a small South American country with a population of around 800,000—could fully meet its population’s needs across all seven food categories.
China and Vietnam followed closely, each able to supply six out of the seven categories from domestic production.
While the two Asian nations rank high in global food independence, the report warns of growing risks for countries that lack diversified production or depend heavily on single trade partners.
“Low self-sufficiency and overdependence on a few countries for imports threaten their capability to respond to global shocks, particularly for small states,” the study said.
The analysis found that 154 countries could meet domestic demand in only two to five of the seven food groups. Several, including Macao, Afghanistan, and Yemen, were unable to achieve self-sufficiency in any category.
The findings come at a time of renewed trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly following fresh restrictions imposed by the United States after Donald Trump’s return to power in January 2025.
“International food trade and cooperation is essential for healthy and sustainable diets,” said Jonas Stehl, lead author of the study and a researcher at the University of Göttingen.
“However, heavy reliance on imports from single countries can leave nations vulnerable. Building resilient food supply chains is imperative for ensuring public health,” he added.
The study also highlights the climate crisis as a compounding factor in global food insecurity. While many European countries overproduce meat and dairy—often exceeding local demand—regions such as Africa remain under-resourced in plant-based staples like legumes, nuts, and vegetables.
“Climate shocks are reshaping the agriculture sector and will continue to intensify,” said co-author Alexander Vonderschmidt, a PhD researcher at the University of Edinburgh. “Open trade and innovation are essential to secure healthy, low-carbon diets.”
With only one in seven countries globally able to meet demand in five or more food groups, the report underscores the urgent need for investment in resilient, diversified, and climate-adaptive food systems—particularly across Asia and the developing world.
